I got into real estate when the interest rate on a mortgage was 11.75%.
And I was happy to get it, because it had just come down from 18.
I have sold homes in Etobicoke, Hamilton, Burlington, Oakville, and across GTA West through every kind of market you can imagine. The 1989 correction. The slow grind back through the nineties. The COVID frenzy. And now this.
When people ask me if I am worried about the February 2025 GTA real estate numbers, my honest answer is no.
Here is what I see, and what I think comes next.
The Number That Tells the Real Story
Sales are down. Prices have adjusted. The headlines are grim.
But the stat that actually matters is this: new listings fell 17.7% year over year in February.
That is not a sign of a broken market. That is sellers exercising discipline.
When people who do not have to sell choose to wait, inventory tightens. Prices stabilise. The market finds a floor. I watched exactly this dynamic protect this market in 2008 and again in 2017.
It is happening again right now.
Stop Comparing This to COVID
Here is the thing I keep saying to anyone who will listen.
Stop using COVID as your benchmark.
What happened between 2020 and 2022 was not a normal market. It was a spike driven by historically low interest rates, pent-up demand, and a complete absence of the usual friction in the buying process.
People were waiving conditions, making offers sight unseen, and paying 20% over asking on properties they had never walked through.
That was not normal. And the correction we are in now is not a disaster. It is the other side of a spike.
Real estate in the GTA has historically returned somewhere between 3% and 5% annually over the long term. That is still a very good investment.
What About Power of Sales and Mortgage Renewals?
Yes, power of sales are up. But from essentially zero coming out of COVID.
I did a search not long ago across Mississauga. I could count the power of sales on one hand. And almost all of them were private or B lenders, not the big banks.
The stress test that everyone complained about when they were buying? That is the thing protecting most people right now.
Only about one in ten homeowners coming up for renewal is actually refinancing. The rest are simply accepting their new rate and moving on. Sub-4% is a good rate. I have sold homes when rates were sitting at double that.
Where We Are in the Cycle
I have been in this business long enough to know that downturns do not last forever.
The 1989 correction took about six years to play out. This one will be shorter, in my view, because we have more safeguards in place and a fundamental shortage of housing supply in this region that is not going away.
I think we are either at or very close to the bottom.
The buyers who are positioning themselves right now, getting financing in order, identifying properties, staying patient — are going to look back on this window as a very smart move.
My Advice If You Are in the GTA West Market
If you are thinking about buying or selling in Etobicoke, Hamilton, Burlington, Oakville, or anywhere across GTA West, do not let the headlines make the decision for you.
Call me. Let's look at the actual numbers for your specific situation.
And come listen to the podcast. Three realtors with over 100 years of combined experience, cutting through the noise.
Real Estate Without The Noise — available on your favourite podcast player.
Sandy Casella | [email protected] | 416-467-8627